The Prediction Markets

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)

Closed
Oct 9, 2026
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 13.4%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.4%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.2%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.2%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.9%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.9%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.8%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.8%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.0%
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.0%
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.2%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.2%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.0%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.0%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.7%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 411 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.7%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 17 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 13.4%
  • Above 12.2%
  • Above 10.9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 8, 2026 (Vercel)". Above 13.4% last traded at 89%. Next is Above 12.2% at 84%. $16K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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