The Prediction Markets

Delaware Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Democrats, 20+ pts 96.9%

Next is Democrats, 16+ pts at 95.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrats, 20+ pts
96.9%
Kalshi 96.9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 20+ pts
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 16+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 16+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 14+ pts
94.7%
Kalshi 94.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 14+ pts
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 18+ pts
94.7%
Kalshi 94.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 18+ pts
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 22+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 90.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 22+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.4¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 24+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 24+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 26+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 26+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 28+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 28+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 30+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 30+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 32+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 32+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats, 34+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 34+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats, 36+ pts
12.2%
Kalshi 12.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 36+ pts
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 38+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 38+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$617
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats, 20+ pts
  • Democrats, 16+ pts
  • Democrats, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Democrats, 20+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Delaware Senate margin of victory". Democrats, 20+ pts leads at 96.9%. Next is Democrats, 16+ pts at 95.4%. $16K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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