The Prediction Markets

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $4.00 99%

Next is Above $4.20 at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $4.00
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.00
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.20
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.20
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.40
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.40
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.60
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.60
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.80
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.80
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.00
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.00
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.20
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.20
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.40
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.40
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.60
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.60
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.80
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.80
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above $6.00
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.00
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.20
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.20
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.40
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.40
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.60
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.60
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.00
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.00
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.80
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.80
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.20
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.20
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.40
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.40
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $7.60
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $7.60
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $4.00
  • Above $4.20
  • Above $4.40

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Diesel price at year-end 2026". Above $4.00 leads at 99%. Next is Above $4.20 at 99%. $46K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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