The Prediction Markets

Division with the Least Total Wins

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

NFC South 44.5%

Next is NFC South at 29.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

NFC South 44.5%NFC South 29.1%AFC East 11.1%AFC East 6.8%AFC East 3.4%3 others 5.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
NFC South
44.5%
Kalshi 52%(44.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFC East
Last price
52%
Fair, margin removed
44.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
NFC South
29.1%
Kalshi 34%(29.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFC South
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
AFC East
11.1%
Kalshi 13%(11.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
AFC South
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Kalshi
AFC East
6.8%
Kalshi 8%(6.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
AFC East
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$980
Trade this on Kalshi
AFC East
3.4%
Kalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AFC West
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Kalshi
AFC East
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AFC North
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Kalshi
NFC South
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFC West
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
NFC South
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFC North
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • NFC South
  • NFC South
  • AFC East

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Division with the Least Total Wins". NFC South leads at 44.5%. Next is NFC South at 29.1%. $5K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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