The Prediction Markets

Don Toliver Streams in 2026

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 7.75B 50%

Next is Above 8.0B at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 7.75B
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.75B
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.0B
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.0B
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.0B
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.0B
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5B
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5B
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.25B
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.25B
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.5B
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.5B
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.25B
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.25B
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.25B
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.25B
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.0B
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.0B
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.75B
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.75B
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 10.75B
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.75B
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.5B
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.5B
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.25B
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.25B
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.0B
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.0B
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5B
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5B
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.75B
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.75B
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 7.75B
  • Above 8.0B
  • Above 11.0B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Don Toliver Streams in 2026". Above 7.75B leads at 50%. Next is Above 8.0B at 50%. $19K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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