The Prediction Markets

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?

Starts in 18 hKickoff
Traded
$204K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

240 81%

Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 54.5%. The venues differ most on 180-199 (Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
240
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
240
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
200+
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
220-240
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
220-240
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
180-199Arb
4.6%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
180-199
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

160-179Arb
4.3%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
160-179
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

140-159Arb
3.3%
Polymarket 10%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
140-159
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

80-99
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
100-119Arb
2.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
100-119
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

120-139Arb
2%
Polymarket 5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
120-139
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

200-219
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
200-219
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
100
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
100
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
20-39
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 180-199 on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 15¢ (1400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 30, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Roll Call, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 240
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • 200+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 240 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?". 240 leads at 81%. Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 54.5%. $204K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 23, 12:00 PM ET and October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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