The Prediction Markets

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

Closed
Mar 23, 2026
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 23, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 214 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 2?
50.7%
Polymarket 50.9%polled, 5139 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 2?
Last price
50.9%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
First Blood in Game 2?
49.3%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 5139 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
First Blood in Game 2?
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 214 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 2?
  • First Blood in Game 2?

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B". Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 2? last traded at 50.7%. Next is First Blood in Game 2? at 49.3%. $75K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 23, 2026.

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Nigma Galaxy and Virtus.pro in the ESL One Birmingham Group B, initially scheduled for March 22 at 3:45PM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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