The Prediction Markets

Duolingo daily active users in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 27, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 60.5 million 89%

Next is Above 61.5 million at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 60.5 million
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.5 million
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61.5 million
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.5 million
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61 million
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61 million
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62 million
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62 million
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.5 million
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.5 million
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63 million
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63 million
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.5 million
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.5 million
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64 million
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64 million
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64.5 million
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64.5 million
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 65.5 million
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 65.5 million
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 66 million
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66 million
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 65 million
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 65 million
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 66.5 million
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 66.5 million
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 67 million
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 67 million
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 67.5 million
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 67.5 million
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 68 million
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 68 million
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 68.5 million
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 68.5 million
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 69 million
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 69 million
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 60.5 million
  • Above 61.5 million
  • Above 61 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Duolingo daily active users in fiscal 2026". Above 60.5 million leads at 89%. Next is Above 61.5 million at 79%. $7K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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