The Prediction Markets

Duolingo paid subscribers in Q3

Closes
Mar 5, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 12.7 million 96%

Next is Above 12.9 million at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 12.7 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.7 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.9 million
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.9 million
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.1 million
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.1 million
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.3 million
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.3 million
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.5 million
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5 million
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.7 million
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.7 million
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.9 million
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.9 million
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 12.7 million
  • Above 12.9 million
  • Above 13.1 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Duolingo paid subscribers in Q3". Above 12.7 million leads at 96%. Next is Above 12.9 million at 84%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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