The Prediction Markets

El Salvador Legislative Election Winner

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Nuevas Ideas (NI) 93.6%

Next is GANA at 1.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Nuevas Ideas (NI) 93.6%GANA 1.4%Vamos 1.4%Salvadoran Democracy (DS) 0.9%FMLN 0.7%6 others 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Nuevas Ideas (NI)
93.6%
Polymarket 96%(93.6% fair)polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuevas Ideas (NI)
Last price
96%
Fair, margin removed
93.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
93.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
GANA
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
GANA
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Vamos
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vamos
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Salvadoran Democracy (DS)
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Salvadoran Democracy (DS)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Polymarket
FMLN
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
FMLN
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket
PDC
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
PDC
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
FPS
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
FPS
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
PCN
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
PCN
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
ARENA
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ARENA
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Polymarket
PAIS
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
PAIS
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket
Solidary Force (FS)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Solidary Force (FS)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tse.gob.sv

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nuevas Ideas (NI)
  • GANA
  • Vamos

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "El Salvador Legislative Election Winner". Nuevas Ideas (NI) leads at 93.6%. Next is GANA at 1.4%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. Notwithstanding the above, if candidates from two or more parties run on the same list, each seat won by that list will be counted toward the party to which the elected candidate belongs. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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