The Prediction Markets

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

Starts in 128 daysKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Nayib Bukele 93.9%

Next is Orlando del Cid at 3.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Nayib Bukele 93.9%Orlando del Cid 3.4%Mayteé Iraheta 1.1%Rafael Aguirre 0.9%Alirio García Flamenco 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Nayib Bukele
93.9%
Polymarket 95.7%(93.9% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nayib Bukele
Last price
95.7%
Fair, margin removed
93.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
93.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Orlando del Cid
3.4%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orlando del Cid
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
Mayteé Iraheta
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mayteé Iraheta
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Aguirre
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Aguirre
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Polymarket
Alirio García Flamenco
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alirio García Flamenco
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tse.gob.sv

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nayib Bukele
  • Orlando del Cid
  • Mayteé Iraheta

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "El Salvador Presidential Election Winner". Nayib Bukele leads at 93.9%. Next is Orlando del Cid at 3.4%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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