The Prediction Markets

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

900B-$1.00T 50.9%

Next is 800-$900B at 24%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

900B-$1.00T 50.9%800-$900B 24%1.00-$1.10T 19.1%700-$800B 3.8%1.10-$1.20T 1.4%2 others 0.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
900B-$1.00T
50.9%
Polymarket 56.5%(50.9% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 64.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $155 (1.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
900B-$1.00T
Last price
56.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64.5¢
Sell Yes
48.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$155 (1.55x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
800-$900B
24%
Polymarket 26.6%(24% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 37.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $264 (2.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
800-$900B
Last price
26.6%
Fair, margin removed
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.9¢
Sell Yes
15.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$264 (2.64x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.00-$1.10T
19.1%
Polymarket 21.2%(19.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 27.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $366 (3.66x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.00-$1.10T
Last price
21.2%
Fair, margin removed
19.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.3¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$366 (3.66x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
700-$800B
3.8%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
700-$800B
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.10-$1.20T
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.10-$1.20T
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.20T+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.20T+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
700B
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
700B
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bloomberg.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 900B-$1.00T
  • 800-$900B
  • 1.00-$1.10T

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?". 900B-$1.00T leads at 50.9%. Next is 800-$900B at 24%. $36K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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