The Prediction Markets

Elon Musk # tweets March 16 - March 18, 2026?

Closed
Mar 18, 2026
Traded
$3.7M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 219 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
90-114
99.8%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5273 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
90-114
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$659K
Trade this on Polymarket
140-164
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5273 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-164
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$513K
Trade this on Polymarket
165-189
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5273 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
165-189
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$206K
Trade this on Polymarket
190-214
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5273 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
190-214
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$131K
Trade this on Polymarket
215-239
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5273 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
215-239
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Polymarket
240+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5273 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
240+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$187K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90-114
  • 140-164
  • 165-189

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Elon Musk # tweets March 16 - March 18, 2026?". 90-114 last traded at 99.8%. Next is 140-164 at 0.1%. $3.7M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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