The Prediction Markets

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$9.5M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
180-199
40.2%
Polymarket 40.7%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 40.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $246 (2.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
40.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
40.7¢
Sell Yes
40.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$246 (2.46x)
Volume
$364K
Trade this on Polymarket
200-219
34%
Polymarket 34.4%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 34.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $291 (2.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
200-219
Last price
34.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
34.4¢
Sell Yes
34.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$291 (2.91x)
Volume
$345K
Trade this on Polymarket
220-239
14.9%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 15.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $662 (6.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
220-239
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
15.1¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$662 (6.62x)
Volume
$366K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
6.7%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$451K
Trade this on Polymarket
240-259
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
240-259
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$303K
Trade this on Polymarket
260-279
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
260-279
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$290K
Trade this on Polymarket
280-299
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
280-299
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$265K
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$683K
Trade this on Polymarket
300-319
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
300-319
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Polymarket
320-339
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
320-339
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$369K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
340-359
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
340-359
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$430K
Trade this on Polymarket
360-379
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
360-379
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$417K
Trade this on Polymarket
380-399
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
380-399
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$400K
Trade this on Polymarket
400-419
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
400-419
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$526K
Trade this on Polymarket
420-439
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
420-439
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$158K
Trade this on Polymarket
440-459
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
440-459
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Polymarket
460-479
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
460-479
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
480-499
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
480-499
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
500+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
500+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$242K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 180-199
  • 200-219
  • 220-239

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?". 180-199 last traded at 40.2%. Next is 200-219 at 34%. $9.5M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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