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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
280-299 16.1%
Next is 300-319 at 15.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
280-29916.1%16.5%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 3 h ago17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)280-29916.1%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
280-299
16.1%
16.5%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
280-299
16.1%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 280-299
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $7K
300-31915.2%15.5%15¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 3 h ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)300-31915.2%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
300-319
15.2%
15.5%
15¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
300-319
15.2%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 300-319
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $9K
320-33913.2%13.5%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3 h ago14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)320-33913.2%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
320-339
13.2%
13.5%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
320-339
13.2%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 320-339
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $9K
260-27911.7%12%11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 h ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)260-27911.7%Polymarket 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
260-279
11.7%
12%
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
260-279
11.7%
Polymarket 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 260-279
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $13K
340-35910.3%10.5%10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 3 h ago11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)340-35910.3%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
340-359
10.3%
10.5%
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
340-359
10.3%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 340-359
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $17K
240-2597.8%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)240-2597.8%Polymarket 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
240-259
7.8%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
240-259
7.8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 240-259
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $12K
360-3797.3%7.5%7¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago7.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)360-3797.3%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
360-379
7.3%
7.5%
7¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
7.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
360-379
7.3%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 360-379
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $9K
380-3995%5.1%4.7¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago5.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)380-3995%Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
380-399
5%
5.1%
4.7¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
5.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
380-399
5%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 380-399
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $9K
220-2394.4%4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)220-2394.4%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
220-239
4.4%
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
220-239
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 220-239
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $17K
400-4192.7%2.8%2.6¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3 h ago3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)400-4192.7%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
400-419
2.7%
2.8%
2.6¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
400-419
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 400-419
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $7K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
420-4391.5%1.6%1.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)420-4391.5%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
420-439
1.5%
1.6%
1.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
420-439
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 420-439
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $6K
200-2191.3%1.3%1.1¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)200-2191.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
200-219
1.3%
1.3%
1.1¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
200-219
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200-219
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $19K
440-4590.9%1%0.7¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)440-4590.9%Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
440-459
0.9%
1%
0.7¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
440-459
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 440-459
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
460-4790.7%0.8%0.6¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)460-4790.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
460-479
0.7%
0.8%
0.6¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
460-479
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 460-479
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $13K
180-1990.6%0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)180-1990.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
180-199
0.6%
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
180-199
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 180-199
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $17K
160-1790.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)160-1790.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
160-179
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
160-179
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 160-179
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $14K
480-4990.3%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)480-4990.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
480-499
0.3%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
480-499
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 480-499
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $12K
80-990.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)80-990.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
80-99
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
80-99
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80-99
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $25K
100-1190.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)100-1190.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
100-119
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
100-119
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100-119
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $19K
120-1390.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)120-1390.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
120-139
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
120-139
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 120-139
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $18K
140-1590.1%0.1%0.1¢ bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)140-1590.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
140-159
0.1%
0.1%
0.1¢ bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
140-159
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 140-159
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $16K
500-5190.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)500-5190.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
500-519
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
500-519
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500-519
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $16K
520-5390.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)520-5390.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
520-539
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
520-539
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 520-539
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $19K
580+0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)580+0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
580+
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
580+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 580+
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $23K
540-5590%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)540-5590%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
540-559
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
540-559
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 540-559
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $17K
560-5790%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)560-5790%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
560-579
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
560-579
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 560-579
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $16K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 280-299
- 300-319
- 320-339
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?". 280-299 leads at 16.1%. Next is 300-319 at 15.2%. $369K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 20 12:00 PM ET to October 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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