The Prediction Markets

EPL: Managers out before 2027

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Michael Carrick 80%

Next is Unai Emery at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Michael Carrick
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Carrick
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unai Emery
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unai Emery
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Oliver Glasner
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oliver Glasner
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Gary O'Neil
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gary O'Neil
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Andrews
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Andrews
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
lvaro Arbeloa
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
lvaro Arbeloa
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pierre Sage
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pierre Sage
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Farke
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Farke
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Enzo Maresca
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enzo Maresca
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Lampard
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Lampard
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Sergej Jakirovic
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sergej Jakirovic
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andoni Iraola
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andoni Iraola
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
David Moyes
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Moyes
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Roberto De Zerbi
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roberto De Zerbi
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matthias Jaissle
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthias Jaissle
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Kalshi
Régis Le Bris
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Régis Le Bris
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Fabian Hürzeler
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fabian Hürzeler
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rose
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rose
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$710
Trade this on Kalshi
Xabi Alonso
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xabi Alonso
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mikel Arteta
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mikel Arteta
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Sky Sports, The Athletic

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michael Carrick
  • Unai Emery
  • Oliver Glasner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "EPL: Managers out before 2027". Michael Carrick leads at 80%. Next is Unai Emery at 50%. $17K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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