The Prediction Markets

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic

Starts in 3 h 7 minKickoff
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 79%

Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 69%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
79%
Polymarket 79%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 Winner
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hamad Medjedovic
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamad Medjedovic
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 21.5
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 22.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 23.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 Winner
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Molcan
39.8%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Molcan
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 40¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 40¢.

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Hamad Medjedovic

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic". Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 79%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 69%. $11K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Hamad Medjedovic in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Hamad Medjedovic. This market will resolve to 'Hamad Medjedovic' if Hamad Medjedovic advances against Alex Molcan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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