The Prediction Markets

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger

Starts in 48 minKickoff
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Marozsan 82.2%

Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 77%. The venues differ most on Marozsan (Polymarket 81%, Kalshi 83%), a 2.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marozsan
82.2%
Polymarket 81%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabian Marozsan
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 82¢.

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 Winner
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 Winner
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 21.5
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 22.5
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Game Spread +/-5.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 23.5
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Sebastian Sorger
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Sorger
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marozsan
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5

Live prices for Marozsan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger". Marozsan leads at 82.2%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 77%. $4K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Sebastian Sorger in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Sebastian Sorger. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Sorger' if Sebastian Sorger advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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