Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
25M 40.5%
Next is 50M at 30.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 55 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
25M40.5%40.5%33¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 55 min ago48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)25M40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
25M
40.5%
40.5%
33¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
25M
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 25M
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $35K
50M30.5%30.5%25¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 55 min ago36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)50M30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
50M
30.5%
30.5%
25¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
50M
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50M
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $13K
100M19.5%19.5%19¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 55 min ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)100M19.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
100M
19.5%
19.5%
19¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
100M
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100M
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $6K
200M18%18%17¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 55 min ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)200M18%Polymarket 18%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
200M
18%
18%
17¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
200M
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200M
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $3K
300M12.5%12.5%11¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 55 min ago14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)300M12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
300M
12.5%
12.5%
11¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
300M
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 300M
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $1K
400M11.5%11.5%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 55 min ago12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)400M11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
400M
11.5%
11.5%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
400M
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 400M
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
500M9.9%9.9%6.4¢ bid, 13.3¢ askpolled, 55 min ago13.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $752 (7.52x)500M9.9%Polymarket 9.9%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
500M
9.9%
9.9%
6.4¢ bid, 13.3¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
13.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $752 (7.52x)
500M
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 13.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $752 (7.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500M
- Last price
- 9.9%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $752 (7.52x)
- Volume
- $9K
800M5.8%5.8%5.3¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 55 min ago6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)800M5.8%Polymarket 5.8%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
800M
5.8%
5.8%
5.3¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
800M
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800M
- Last price
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
600M5.2%5.2%5.1¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, 55 min ago5.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)600M5.2%Polymarket 5.2%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
600M
5.2%
5.2%
5.1¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
5.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
600M
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 600M
- Last price
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $522
1B3.5%3.5%3.1¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 55 min ago3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)1B3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
1B
3.5%
3.5%
3.1¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
1B
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1B
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $3K
2B3.1%3.1%2.4¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 55 min ago3.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)2B3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
2B
3.1%
3.1%
2.4¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
3.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
2B
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2B
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 25M
- 50M
- 100M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 25M leads at 40.5%. Next is 50M at 30.5%. $79K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More crypto markets
See all crypto markets- Bitcoin price at the end of 202675,000 to 79,999.9914.2%$42.7M traded
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k?by December 31, 202727.5%$27.3M traded
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes4.6%$24.4M traded
- Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?Above $2000002%$12.5M traded
- Ethereum price at the end of 20262,250 to 2,499.9917.9%$12.3M traded
- Bitcoin all time high by ___?December 31, 20264.5%$10.5M traded