The Prediction Markets

Ethereum tapered issuance burn implemented by ___?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2028 35%

Next is December 31, 2027 at 23%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2028
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2028
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2027
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2028
  • December 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ethereum tapered issuance burn implemented by ___?". December 31, 2028 leads at 35%. Next is December 31, 2027 at 23%. $3K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tapered issuance burn is activated on the Ethereum mainnet by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A tapered issuance burn means a consensus-layer change to the Ethereum protocol, as described in EIP-8361 or any renumbered, revised, or successor proposal, that satisfies all of the following: - The change charges validators a deduction against consensus-layer issuance (staking rewards), with the deducted ETH permanently destroyed rather than redirected to any other party. - The size of the deduction increases with Ethereum's staking ratio (the share of total ETH supply that is staked), such that the net issuance incentive to stake declines toward zero as the staking ratio approaches a defined saturation level. - The change is live and enforced on the Ethereum mainnet by the date specified in the title. Changes to the parameters described in EIP-8361 as drafted (including the burn formula, saturation level, transition schedule, or base reward factor) will not affect resolution, provided the criteria above are met. A change to Ethereum's issuance schedule or reward curve that does not involve burning ETH as a function of the staking ratio does not qualify. Proposals, drafts, EIP status changes, client releases, testnet activations, or inclusion in a planned fork specification do not qualify on their own. To qualify, the upgrade must be activated on the canonical Ethereum network, the chain recognized by the majority of validators and economic activity. Implementation on minority forks or alternative chains does not qualify. "Activated" means the upgrade has reached the point at which its rules are enforced on Ethereum mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any scheduled fork activation. Once activated, a subsequent reversal or rollback of the upgrade will not change resolution. The resolution source will be the Ethereum blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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