The Prediction Markets

European Central Bank rate decision in December

Closes
Dec 17, 2026, in 55 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Hike 1-25bps 80.2%

Next is Maintain current rate at 15.8%. The venues differ most on Maintain current rate (Polymarket 15%, Kalshi 18%), a 3.0-point gap.

Cut more than 25bps 1.2%Cut 1-25bps 1.4%Maintain current rate 15.8%Hike 1-25bps 80.2%Hike more than 25bps 1.4%

Ordered from largest cut to largest hike.

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cut more than 25bps
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Cut 1-25bps
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Maintain current rate
15.8%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Hike 1-25bps
80.2%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 79¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.

Hike more than 25bps
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 17, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 17, 2026, 1:14 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ecb.europa.eu
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics
Show full rule comparison
  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes Dec 17, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 17, 2026, 1:14 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hike 1-25bps
  • Maintain current rate
  • Cut 1-25bps

Live prices for Hike 1-25bps

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "European Central Bank rate decision in December". Hike 1-25bps leads at 80.2%. Next is Maintain current rate at 15.8%. $41K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets