The Prediction Markets

European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen

Starts in 3 h 57 minKickoff
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5 83.5%

Next is Fils at 64.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fils
64.8%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 65%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 21.5
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 Winner
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 Winner
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 22.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 23.5
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Michelsen
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Michelsen
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5
  • Fils
  • European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen". European Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-2.5 leads at 83.5%. Next is Fils at 64.8%. $9K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Alex Michelsen in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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