The Prediction Markets

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Closed
May 12, 2026
Traded
$207K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Finland
64.2%
Polymarket 67.5%(64.2% fair)polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
67.5%
Fair, margin removed
64.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Greece
13.8%
Polymarket 14.5%(13.8% fair)polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.8%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
12.9%
Polymarket 13.5%(12.8% fair)polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Croatia
5.7%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Croatia
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moldova
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moldova
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lithuania
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lithuania
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poland
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Poland
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Serbia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Serbia
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sweden
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sweden
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Belgium
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3902 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Finland
  • Greece
  • Israel

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner". Finland last traded at 64.2%. Next is Greece at 13.8%. $207K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets