The Prediction Markets

Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

Closed
May 14, 2026
Traded
$286K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Denmark
97%
Polymarket 97%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denmark
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Australia
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Australia
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Romania
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Romania
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Malta
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malta
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bulgaria
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bulgaria
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cyprus
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cyprus
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Norway
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Norway
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Czechia
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Czechia
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Albania
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Albania
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Switzerland
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Polymarket
Latvia
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Latvia
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luxembourg
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luxembourg
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Armenia
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Armenia
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Azerbaijan
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Azerbaijan
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Denmark
  • Australia
  • Ukraine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final". Denmark last traded at 97%. Next is Australia at 95.5%. $286K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 14, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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