The Prediction Markets

Eurovision Asia Winner 2026

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Malaysia 35.9%

Next is Philippines at 30%. The venues differ most on Vietnam (Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 58%), a 52-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Malaysia
35.9%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 28%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malaysia
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Malaysia
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Philippines
30%
Polymarket 24%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 48%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philippines
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philippines
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Vietnam
20%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 58%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vietnam
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vietnam
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

South Korea
14.5%
Polymarket 12%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republic of Korea
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Thailand
12.5%
Polymarket 11%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thailand
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thailand
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$781
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Cambodia
9.7%
Polymarket 12.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cambodia
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$408 (4.08x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cambodia
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Laos
8.3%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laos
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Laos
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bhutan
7.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bhutan
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bhutan
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bangladesh
6.2%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bangladesh
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bangladesh
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mongolia
6%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mongolia
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mongolia
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nepal
3.5%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nepal
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nepal
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results are not announced by Jan 31, 2027; Kalshi instead keeps trading open for postponement up to one year and resolves to last fair price if cancelled with no winner.
  • Kalshi resolves to the official winner declared by Voxovation and EBU; Polymarket uses the official ranking from Eurovision with credible reporting consensus sufficing. Sources could differ only in rare cases.
  • Tie-breaking: Kalshi defers to official tie-breaking rules; Polymarket specifies its own tie-break cascade (total points, jury points, public vote, alphabetical). These could differ only in a rare tie.
  • Kalshi may resolve an entry to No early if it fails to qualify or becomes ineligible; Polymarket has no early resolution rule. The final outcome should be the same.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for no result announced, which Kalshi lacks; Kalshi would resolve to last fair price on cancellation.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 15, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MS Now, The Wall Street Journal, ABC
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results are not announced by Jan 31, 2027; Kalshi instead keeps trading open for postponement up to one year and resolves to last fair price if cancelled with no winner.
  • Kalshi resolves to the official winner declared by Voxovation and EBU; Polymarket uses the official ranking from Eurovision with credible reporting consensus sufficing. Sources could differ only in rare cases.
  • Tie-breaking: Kalshi defers to official tie-breaking rules; Polymarket specifies its own tie-break cascade (total points, jury points, public vote, alphabetical). These could differ only in a rare tie.
  • Kalshi may resolve an entry to No early if it fails to qualify or becomes ineligible; Polymarket has no early resolution rule. The final outcome should be the same.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for no result announced, which Kalshi lacks; Kalshi would resolve to last fair price on cancellation.
  • Trading closes Nov 15, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 2, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Vietnam

Live prices for Malaysia

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Eurovision Asia Winner 2026". Malaysia leads at 35.9%. Next is Philippines at 30%. $8K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 is scheduled for November 14, 2026. This market will resolve to the country ranked first in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026, according to the ranking below. Countries will be ranked according to their official competition ranking in the Grand Final. If two or more countries share the same ranking, ties will be broken by the total number of points received. If still tied, ties will be broken by the total number of points received from the national juries. If still tied, ties will be broken by the total number of points received from the public vote. If still tied, ties will be broken alphabetically by English country name. This market will resolve according to the country ranked first under this ranking. If the results of the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 are not announced by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://www.eurovision.com/asia/), including live footage of Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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