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What the markets expect
Chris Getz 41.3%
Next is Erik Neander at 9.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Chris Getz41.3%57%41.3% fair50¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 27s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Chris Getz41.3%Kalshi 57%(41.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Chris Getz
41.3%
57%
41.3% fair
50¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Chris Getz
41.3%
Kalshi 57%(41.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Getz
- Last price
- 57%
- Fair, margin removed
- 41.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $8K
Erik Neander9.4%13%9.4% fair4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 27s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Erik Neander9.4%Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Erik Neander
9.4%
13%
9.4% fair
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Erik Neander
9.4%
Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Erik Neander
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $3K
Matt Arnold9.4%13%9.4% fair8¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 27s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Matt Arnold9.4%Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Matt Arnold
9.4%
13%
9.4% fair
8¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Matt Arnold
9.4%
Kalshi 13%(9.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Arnold
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ben Cherington5.1%7%5.1% fair1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 27s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Ben Cherington5.1%Kalshi 7%(5.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ben Cherington
5.1%
7%
5.1% fair
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ben Cherington
5.1%
Kalshi 7%(5.1% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ben Cherington
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Craig Breslow2.9%4%2.9% fair4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 27s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Craig Breslow2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Craig Breslow
2.9%
4%
2.9% fair
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Craig Breslow
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Craig Breslow
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
A. J. Preller1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)A. J. Preller1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
A. J. Preller
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
A. J. Preller
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- A. J. Preller
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $294
Alex Anthopoulos1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Alex Anthopoulos1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Anthopoulos
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Anthopoulos
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Anthopoulos
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $795
Anirudh Kilambi1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Anirudh Kilambi1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Anirudh Kilambi
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Anirudh Kilambi
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anirudh Kilambi
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Brad Meador1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Brad Meador1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brad Meador
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brad Meador
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Meador
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3
Brandon Gomes1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Brandon Gomes1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brandon Gomes
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brandon Gomes
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Gomes
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $193
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Brian Cashman1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Brian Cashman1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brian Cashman
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brian Cashman
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brian Cashman
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Dana Brown1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Dana Brown1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dana Brown
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dana Brown
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dana Brown
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $78
David Forst1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)David Forst1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
David Forst
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
David Forst
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Forst
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $25
J. J. Picollo1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)J. J. Picollo1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
J. J. Picollo
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
J. J. Picollo
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- J. J. Picollo
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $236
Josh Byrnes1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Josh Byrnes1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Byrnes
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Byrnes
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Byrnes
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Mike Chernoff1.5%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mike Chernoff1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Chernoff
1.5%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Chernoff
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Chernoff
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $78
Mike Elias1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mike Elias1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Elias
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Elias
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Elias
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $17
Mike Girsch1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mike Girsch1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Girsch
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Girsch
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Girsch
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Mike Hazen1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mike Hazen1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Hazen
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mike Hazen
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Hazen
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $330
Perry Minasian1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Perry Minasian1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Perry Minasian
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Perry Minasian
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Perry Minasian
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $205
Ross Atkins1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ross Atkins1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ross Atkins
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ross Atkins
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ross Atkins
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $46
Ross Fenstermaker1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ross Fenstermaker1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ross Fenstermaker
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ross Fenstermaker
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ross Fenstermaker
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $67
Tie/Co-Winners1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tie/Co-Winners1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tie/Co-Winners
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tie/Co-Winners
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie/Co-Winners
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $10
Carter Hawkins0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Carter Hawkins0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Carter Hawkins
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Carter Hawkins
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carter Hawkins
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6
David Stearns0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)David Stearns0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
David Stearns
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
David Stearns
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Stearns
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Gabe Kapler0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Gabe Kapler0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gabe Kapler
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gabe Kapler
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabe Kapler
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeff Greenberg0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jeff Greenberg0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeff Greenberg
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeff Greenberg
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeff Greenberg
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeremy Zoll0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jeremy Zoll0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeremy Zoll
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jeremy Zoll
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeremy Zoll
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Justin Hollander0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Justin Hollander0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Justin Hollander
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Justin Hollander
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Hollander
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Preston Mattingly0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Preston Mattingly0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Preston Mattingly
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Preston Mattingly
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Preston Mattingly
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Zack Minasian0.7%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 27s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Zack Minasian0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Zack Minasian
0.7%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 27s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Zack Minasian
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zack Minasian
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Chris Getz
- Erik Neander
- Matt Arnold
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Executive of the Year Winner?". Chris Getz leads at 41.3%. Next is Erik Neander at 9.4%. $21K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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