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What the markets expect
John Lynch 40.4%
Next is Andrew Berry at 18.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
John Lynch40.4%57%40.4% fair35¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 22s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)John Lynch40.4%Kalshi 57%(40.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
John Lynch
40.4%
57%
40.4% fair
35¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
John Lynch
40.4%
Kalshi 57%(40.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Lynch
- Last price
- 57%
- Fair, margin removed
- 40.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $4K
Andrew Berry18.5%26%18.4% fair14¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 22s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Andrew Berry18.5%Kalshi 26%(18.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Andrew Berry
18.5%
26%
18.4% fair
14¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Andrew Berry
18.5%
Kalshi 26%(18.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Berry
- Last price
- 26%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $5K
Ryan Poles5.7%8%5.7% fair7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 22s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Ryan Poles5.7%Kalshi 8%(5.7% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ryan Poles
5.7%
8%
5.7% fair
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ryan Poles
5.7%
Kalshi 8%(5.7% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Poles
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $5K
Brett Veach4.3%6%4.3% fair6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 22s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Brett Veach4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brett Veach
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brett Veach
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brett Veach
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Duke Tobin4.3%6%4.3% fair6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 22s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Duke Tobin4.3%Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Duke Tobin
4.3%
6%
4.3% fair
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Duke Tobin
4.3%
Kalshi 6%(4.3% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Duke Tobin
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $5K
Les Snead3.6%5%3.5% fair4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 22s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Les Snead3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Les Snead
3.6%
5%
3.5% fair
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Les Snead
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Les Snead
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $14K
Brandon Beane2.9%4%2.8% fair4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 22s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Brandon Beane2.9%Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brandon Beane
2.9%
4%
2.8% fair
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brandon Beane
2.9%
Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Beane
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Howie Roseman2.1%3%2.1% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 22s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Howie Roseman2.1%Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Howie Roseman
2.1%
3%
2.1% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Howie Roseman
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Howie Roseman
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Brian Gutekunst1.4%2%1.4% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 22s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Brian Gutekunst1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brian Gutekunst
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brian Gutekunst
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brian Gutekunst
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
John Schneider1.4%2%1.4% fair1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 22s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)John Schneider1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
John Schneider
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
John Schneider
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Schneider
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Adam Peters0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Adam Peters0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Adam Peters
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Adam Peters
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Adam Peters
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Brad Holmes0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brad Holmes0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Holmes
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Holmes
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Holmes
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Chris Ballard0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chris Ballard0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Ballard
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Ballard
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Ballard
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Dan Morgan0.7%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 22s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Dan Morgan0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Dan Morgan
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Dan Morgan
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dan Morgan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Darren Mougey0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Darren Mougey0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Darren Mougey
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Darren Mougey
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Darren Mougey
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Eliott Wolf0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Eliott Wolf0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eliott Wolf
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eliott Wolf
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eliott Wolf
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Eric DeCosta0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Eric DeCosta0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eric DeCosta
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Eric DeCosta
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eric DeCosta
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
George Paton0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)George Paton0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Paton
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Paton
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Paton
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Ian Cunningham0.7%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 22s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ian Cunningham0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ian Cunningham
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ian Cunningham
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ian Cunningham
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
James Gladstone0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)James Gladstone0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
James Gladstone
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
James Gladstone
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Gladstone
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jason Licht0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jason Licht0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jason Licht
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jason Licht
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jason Licht
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jerry Jones0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jerry Jones0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jerry Jones
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jerry Jones
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jerry Jones
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Joe Hortiz0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Joe Hortiz0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joe Hortiz
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joe Hortiz
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joe Hortiz
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
John SchneiderKalshi: “Joe Schoen”0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)John Schneider0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John Schneider
Kalshi: “Joe Schoen”
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John Schneider
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joe Schoen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
John Spytek0.7%1%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 22s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)John Spytek0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
John Spytek
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
John Spytek
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Spytek
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Jon-Eric Sullivan0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jon-Eric Sullivan0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jon-Eric Sullivan
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jon-Eric Sullivan
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon-Eric Sullivan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Mickey Loomis0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Mickey Loomis0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mickey Loomis
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mickey Loomis
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mickey Loomis
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Mike Borgonzi0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Mike Borgonzi0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mike Borgonzi
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mike Borgonzi
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Borgonzi
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Monti Ossenfort0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Monti Ossenfort0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Monti Ossenfort
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Monti Ossenfort
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Monti Ossenfort
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Nick Caserio0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nick Caserio0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Caserio
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nick Caserio
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Caserio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Omar Khan0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Omar Khan0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Omar Khan
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Omar Khan
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Omar Khan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Tie/Co-Winners0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 22s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie/Co-Winners0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie/Co-Winners
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie/Co-Winners
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- John Lynch
- Andrew Berry
- Ryan Poles
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Executive of the Year Winner?". John Lynch leads at 40.4%. Next is Andrew Berry at 18.5%. $108K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 21, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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