The Prediction Markets

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.0M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

150M 65.5%

Next is 300M at 39%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
150M
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
150M
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$659K
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
800M
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
800M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$259K
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$123K
Trade this on Polymarket
3B
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3B
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Polymarket
2B
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2B
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 150M
  • 300M
  • 500M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 150M leads at 65.5%. Next is 300M at 39%. $4.0M has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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