The Prediction Markets

F1: Action of the Year

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$217K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Max Verstappen 35.9%

Next is Kimi Antonelli at 17.8%. The venues differ most on Lewis Hamilton (Polymarket 8%, Kalshi 11%), a 3.0-point gap.

Max Verstappen 35.9%Kimi Antonelli 17.8%Andrea Kimi Antonelli 16.2%Lewis Hamilton 6.8%Charles Leclerc 2.2%19 others 21.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Max Verstappen
35.9%
Polymarket 52.9%(37.4% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 50%(35.7% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
52.9%
Fair, margin removed
37.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60.7¢
Sell Yes
45.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$165 (1.65x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
35.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 45.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 51¢.

Kimi Antonelli
17.8%
Polymarket 25.5%(18% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
16.2%
Kalshi 23%(16.4% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
16.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lewis Hamilton
6.8%
Polymarket 8%(5.6% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 11%(7.9% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.8¢.

Charles Leclerc
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%(1.6% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
2.3%
Fair, margin removed
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.1¢.

George Russell
2%
Polymarket 2.8%(1.9% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
George Russell
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.3¢.

Oscar Piastri
2%
Polymarket 2.8%(1.9% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$891
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Franco Colapinto
1.8%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.2% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Lando NorrisArb
1.7%
Polymarket 1.8%(1.3% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
1.8%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$707
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Alexander Albon
1.3%
Polymarket 2.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
2.1%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 14 more outcomes
Liam Lawson
1.3%
Polymarket 2.1%(1.5% fair)polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
2.1%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Arvid Lindblad
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 45s agoKalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Fernando AlonsoArb
1.2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Pierre Gasly
1.1%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Gabriel Bortoleto
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Isack Hadjar
1%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$796
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.9¢.

Oliver Bearman
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Valtteri Bottas
0.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Sergio Perez
0.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tie/Co-Winners
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Carlos Sainz
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Sainz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Esteban Ocon
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Nico Hulkenberg
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Lance Stroll
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Lando Norris on Polymarket at 1.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 3¢ (110 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 14, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIA
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 14, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Max Verstappen
  • Kimi Antonelli
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Live prices for Max Verstappen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "F1: Action of the Year". Max Verstappen leads at 35.9%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 17.8%. $217K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2026 Action of the Year award for the 2026 Formula 1 season as awarded at the FIA Awards. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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