The Prediction Markets

F1 Constructors Champion

Closes
Dec 21, 2026, in 59 days
Traded
$31.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mercedes AMG Motorsport 92.1%

Next is Alpine at 1%. The venues differ most on Mercedes AMG Motorsport (Polymarket 99.2%, Kalshi 98%), a 1.2-point gap.

Mercedes AMG Motorsport 92.1%Alpine 1%Aston Martin 0.9%Audi 0.9%Cadillac 0.9%6 others 4.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 15 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mercedes AMG Motorsport
92.1%
Polymarket 99.2%(92.6% fair)live, 37s agoKalshi 98%(90.7% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mercedes
Price
99.2%
Fair, margin removed
92.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mercedes AMG Motorsport
Price
98%
Fair, margin removed
90.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$497K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Alpine
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alpine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aston Martin
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aston Martin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Audi
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Audi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cadillac
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cadillac
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haas
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Racing Bulls
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Racing Bulls
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ferrari
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ferrari
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$870K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ferrari
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$659K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

McLaren
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
McLaren
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
McLaren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$342K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Red Bull Racing
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Red Bull Racing
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Red Bull Racing
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$337K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mercedes AMG Motorsport
  • Alpine
  • Aston Martin

Live prices for Mercedes AMG Motorsport

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "F1 Constructors Champion". Mercedes AMG Motorsport leads at 92.1%. Next is Alpine at 1%. $31.4M has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 21, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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