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What the markets expect
Arsenal 18.9%
Next is Manchester City at 14.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Arsenal18.9%18%18.9% fair15¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Arsenal18.9%Kalshi 18%(18.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Arsenal
18.9%
18%
18.9% fair
15¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Arsenal
18.9%
Kalshi 18%(18.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arsenal
- Last price
- 18%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $20K
Manchester City14.7%14%14.7% fair12¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just now16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Manchester City14.7%Kalshi 14%(14.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Manchester City
14.7%
14%
14.7% fair
12¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Manchester City
14.7%
Kalshi 14%(14.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Manchester City
- Last price
- 14%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $18K
Chelsea12.6%12%12.6% fair10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Chelsea12.6%Kalshi 12%(12.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Chelsea
12.6%
12%
12.6% fair
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Chelsea
12.6%
Kalshi 12%(12.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chelsea
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Liverpool12.6%12%12.6% fair8¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Liverpool12.6%Kalshi 12%(12.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Liverpool
12.6%
12%
12.6% fair
8¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Liverpool
12.6%
Kalshi 12%(12.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liverpool
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
Brighton7.4%7%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Brighton7.4%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brighton
7.4%
7%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brighton
7.4%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brighton
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Manchester United4.2%4%3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Manchester United4.2%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Manchester United
4.2%
4%
3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Manchester United
4.2%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Manchester United
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
Aston Villa3.2%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Aston Villa3.2%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Aston Villa
3.2%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Aston Villa
3.2%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aston Villa
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Brentford2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Brentford2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brentford
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Brentford
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brentford
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Crystal Palace2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Crystal Palace2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Crystal Palace
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Crystal Palace
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crystal Palace
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Everton2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Everton2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Everton
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Everton
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Everton
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Leeds United2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Leeds United2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leeds United
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leeds United
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leeds United
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Newcastle2.1%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Newcastle2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Newcastle
2.1%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Newcastle
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Newcastle
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $919
Tottenham2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tottenham2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tottenham
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tottenham
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tottenham
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
West Ham2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)West Ham2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
West Ham
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
West Ham
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- West Ham
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Wrexham2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Wrexham2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wrexham
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wrexham
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wrexham
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Bournemouth1.1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Bournemouth1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Bournemouth
1.1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Bournemouth
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bournemouth
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Burnley1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Burnley1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Burnley
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Burnley
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Burnley
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Coventry1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Coventry1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Coventry
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Coventry
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Coventry
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Fulham1.1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Fulham1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Fulham
1.1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Fulham
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fulham
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $991
Hull City1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Hull City1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hull City
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Hull City
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hull City
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ipswich Town1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ipswich Town1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ipswich Town
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ipswich Town
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ipswich Town
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Nottingham1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Nottingham1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Nottingham
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Nottingham
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nottingham
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Sunderland1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Sunderland1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Sunderland
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Sunderland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sunderland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Wolverhampton1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Wolverhampton1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Wolverhampton
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Wolverhampton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wolverhampton
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Arsenal
- Manchester City
- Chelsea
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FA Cup Champion". Arsenal leads at 18.9%. Next is Manchester City at 14.7%. $74K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 5, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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