The Prediction Markets

FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Starts in 20 hKickoff
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Dallas 53.9%

Next is San Jose at 23.6%. The venues differ most on Dallas (Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 1.5-point gap.

Dallas 53.9%San Jose 23.6%Draw 22.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dallas
53.9%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, just nowKalshi 55%(53.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
FC Dallas
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
55%
Fair, margin removed
53.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

San Jose
23.6%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, just nowKalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Jose Earthquakes
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Jose
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Draw
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, just nowKalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes)
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: mlssoccer.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MLS
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dallas
  • San Jose
  • Draw

Live prices for Dallas

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes". Dallas leads at 53.9%. Next is San Jose at 23.6%. $20K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 between FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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