The Prediction Markets

Fearnley vs Carreno Busta

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$55K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 99.5%

Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 at 69%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 Winner
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 21.5
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 Winner
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fearnley
56.9%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 59s agoKalshi 57%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Fearnley
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
27¢
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 59s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
47¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 22.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Match O/U 23.5
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Pablo Carreno Busta
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pablo Carreno Busta
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fearnley vs Carreno Busta". Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 leads at 99.5%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta Set 1 O/U 10.5 at 69%. $55K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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