The Prediction Markets

Featherweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Movsar Evloev 46%

Next is Ilia Topuria at 27%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Movsar Evloev
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movsar Evloev
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ilia Topuria
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Diego Lopes
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diego Lopes
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Volkanovski
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jean Silva
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Silva
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aljamain Sterling
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aljamain Sterling
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Arnold Allen
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arnold Allen
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Ortega
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Ortega
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lerone Murphy
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lerone Murphy
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Rodriguez
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Rodriguez
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Youssef Zalal
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Youssef Zalal
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Movsar Evloev
  • Ilia Topuria
  • Diego Lopes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Featherweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?". Movsar Evloev leads at 46%. Next is Ilia Topuria at 27%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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