The Prediction Markets

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 47 days
Traded
$5.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

25 bps increase 71%

Next is No change at 24.5%. The venues differ most on No change (Polymarket 24%, Kalshi 27%), a 3.0-point gap.

50+ bps decrease 0.6%25 bps decrease 0.7%No change 24.5%25 bps increase 71%50+ bps increase 3.2%

Ordered from largest cut to largest hike.

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 10 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
50+ bps decrease
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$779K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

25 bps decreaseArb
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 34s agoKalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$985K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$223K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

No change
24.5%
Polymarket 24%polled, 34s agoKalshi 27%(25.7% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$996K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
25.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

25 bps increase
71%
Polymarket 71.5%live, just nowKalshi 72%(68.6% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Price
71.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Price
72%
Fair, margin removed
68.6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$255K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 71¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 72¢.

50+ bps increaseArb
3.2%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 34s agoKalshi 4%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$603K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$289K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 50+ bps increase on Polymarket at 2.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 4¢ (110 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes Dec 9, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25 bps increase
  • No change
  • 50+ bps increase

Live prices for 25 bps increase

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed decision in Dec 2026?". 25 bps increase leads at 71%. Next is No change at 24.5%. $5.7M has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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