The Prediction Markets

Fed decision in Oct 2027?

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$234K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Fed maintains rate 80%

Next is Pause-Hike-Pause at 59%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fed maintains rate
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pause-Hike-Pause
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Hike-Pause
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Hike-Hike
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Hike-Hike
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Hike-Pause
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Pause-Pause
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Hike-Hike
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Pause-Hike
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Pause
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Pause
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut 25bps
4.9%
Kalshi 7%polled, 58s agoKalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike >25bps
3%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoKalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike-Hike-Pause
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Pause
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Hike
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Hike
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fed maintains rate
  • Pause-Hike-Pause
  • Pause-Hike-Hike

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fed maintains rate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed decision in Oct 2027?". Fed maintains rate leads at 80%. Next is Pause-Hike-Pause at 59%. $234K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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