The Prediction Markets

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Closes
Jan 27, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$14.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Fed maintains rate 77.8%

Next is Pause-Hike-Pause at 59%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 23 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fed maintains rate
77.8%
Kalshi 93%live, just nowKalshi 63%live, just nowKalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Price
93%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$6.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Price
63%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pause-Hike-Pause
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Hike-Pause
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Hike-Hike
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Hike-Hike
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike 25bps
12.7%
Kalshi 6%polled, 33s agoKalshi 1%polled, 33s agoKalshi 30%polled, 33s agoKalshi 5%polled, 33s agoKalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$147K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Kalshi
Pause-Hike-Pause
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Pause-Pause
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Hike-Hike
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Pause-Hike
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Pause
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Pause
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut 25bps
4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 33s agoKalshi 1%polled, 33s agoKalshi 3%polled, 33s agoKalshi 1%polled, 33s agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$247K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike-Hike-Pause
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Pause
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Hike
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Hike
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fed maintains rate
  • Pause-Hike-Pause
  • Pause-Hike-Hike

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fed maintains rate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)". Fed maintains rate leads at 77.8%. Next is Pause-Hike-Pause at 59%. $14.7M has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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