The Prediction Markets

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 48 days
Traded
$1.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Hike–Hike–Hike 71.5%

Next is Fed maintains rate at 48.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 19 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hike–Hike–Hike
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike–Pause–Hike
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fed maintains rate
48.2%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 58%polled, 38s agoKalshi 85%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$415K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Fed maintains rate
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike–Pause–Pause
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike–Pause–Pause
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike >25bps
17.3%
Kalshi 72%live, just nowKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 38s agoKalshi 2%polled, 38s agoKalshi 11%polled, 38s agoKalshi 6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Price
72%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$256K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$291K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Hike >25bps
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cut 25bps
5.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 38s agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoKalshi 4%polled, 38s agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$223K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Cut >25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike–Hike–Hike
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike–Hike–Hike
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike–Pause–Pause
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike–Hike–Pause
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hike–Hike–Hike
  • Fed maintains rate
  • Hike–Pause–Pause

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Hike–Hike–Hike for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)". Hike–Hike–Hike leads at 71.5%. Next is Fed maintains rate at 48.2%. $1.9M has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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