The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting?

Closes
Sep 15, 2027, in 11 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.00% 99%

Next is Above 0.25% at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 0.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
64¢
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.25%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.25%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
64¢
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.50%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.50%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
63¢
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
61¢
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
61¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Above 2.50%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
60¢
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
25¢
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
38¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
32¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
42¢
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
28.5%
Kalshi 28.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.00%
  • Above 0.25%
  • Above 0.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting?". Above 0.00% leads at 99%. Next is Above 0.25% at 99%. $11K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets