The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$152K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.75% 99%

Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. The venues differ most on 6.0% (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 10%), a 9.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
70¢
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
69¢
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
89¢
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Above 3.25%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.50%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
4.25%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.25%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.75%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 26.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $372 (3.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$372 (3.72x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.0%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.25%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0%
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Polymarket
3.25%
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
3.75%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.75%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Polymarket
5.25%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.25%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.0%Arb
3.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 23s agoKalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 280 bps before fees.

3.5%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
2.75%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
5.75%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.75%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 6.0% on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 3¢ (280 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Polymarket reads it after the December FOMC meeting; Kalshi at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, so an emergency move in between splits them.
  • Kalshi rungs are strict 'Above X%'; Polymarket lists exact levels. Rungs are linked only where the 25 bp grid makes them identical; other rungs are derived sums.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Polymarket reads it after the December FOMC meeting; Kalshi at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, so an emergency move in between splits them.
  • Kalshi rungs are strict 'Above X%'; Polymarket lists exact levels. Rungs are linked only where the 25 bp grid makes them identical; other rungs are derived sums.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 2.25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.75% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2027". Above 1.75% leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. $152K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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