The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2028

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.00% 90%

Next is Above 1.75% at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.00%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
64¢
Volume
$596
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
58¢
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
81¢
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
62¢
Volume
$563
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
50¢
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
53¢
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
50¢
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 3.75%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2028". Above 1.00% leads at 90%. Next is Above 1.75% at 85%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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