The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2029

Closes
Jan 1, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.00% 88%

Next is Above 1.25% at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.00%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 39s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
59¢
Volume
$617
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 39s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
54¢
Volume
$444
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 39s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
50¢
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 3.25%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 1.25%
  • Above 1.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2029". Above 1.00% leads at 88%. Next is Above 1.25% at 88%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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