The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2030

Closes
Jan 1, 2031, in 51 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.00% 92%

Next is Above 1.50% at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.00%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 3.25%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.00%
  • Above 1.50%
  • Above 1.25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2030". Above 3.00% leads at 92%. Next is Above 1.50% at 87%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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