The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2031

Closes
Jan 1, 2032, in 63 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.00% 85%

Next is Above 1.25% at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.00%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 3.50%
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$990
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 1.25%
  • Above 2.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2031". Above 1.00% leads at 85%. Next is Above 1.25% at 77%. $5K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2032.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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