The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2032

Closes
Jan 1, 2033, in 75 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.75% 91%

Next is Above 1.25% at 80%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.75%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 4.75%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.25%
  • Above 1.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2032". Above 1.75% leads at 91%. Next is Above 1.25% at 80%. $2K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2033.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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