The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2033

Closes
Jan 1, 2034, in 88 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.75% 84%

Next is Above 1.00% at 76%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.75%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 2.75%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 1.25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2033". Above 1.75% leads at 84%. Next is Above 1.00% at 76%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2034.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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