The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2035

Closes
Jan 1, 2036, in 112 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.00% 88%

Next is Above 2.25% at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.00%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 4.25%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 2.25%
  • Above 2.00%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2035". Above 1.00% leads at 88%. Next is Above 2.25% at 83%. $2K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2036.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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