The Prediction Markets

Fed funds rate at end of 2036

Closes
Jan 1, 2037, in 124 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.25% 92%

Next is Above 1.75% at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.25%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.75%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 2.75%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.50%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.25%
  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 3.00%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed funds rate at end of 2036". Above 1.25% leads at 92%. Next is Above 1.75% at 90%. $3K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2037.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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