The Prediction Markets

Fed rate cut by...?

Closes
Jan 29, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.75% 99%

Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
69¢
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
69¢
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 23s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
89¢
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 31 more outcomes
Above 3.25%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2
67.9%
Kalshi 67.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 70.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2
Last price
67.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70.9¢
Sell Yes
64.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
July 2027 Meeting
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
July 2027 Meeting
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.50%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 2027 Meeting
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 2027 Meeting
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
April 2027 Meeting
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 2027 Meeting
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.50%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 1
17.3%
Kalshi 17.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 19.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $515 (5.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 1
Last price
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.4¢
Sell Yes
16.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$515 (5.15x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.00%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
March 2027 Meeting
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 2027 Meeting
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 3
11.2%
Kalshi 11.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
January 2027 Meeting
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 2027 Meeting
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cuts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
December 2026 Meeting
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 2026 Meeting
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 4
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 2026 Meeting
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 2026 Meeting
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$234K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 6
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 6
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 7
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 7
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 8
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 8
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 9
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 9
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 11
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 11
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 12
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 12
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 5
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 5
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 10
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 10
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 2.25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.75% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed rate cut by...?". Above 1.75% leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. $5.7M has traded across 41 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 29, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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