The Prediction Markets

Ferrari shipments in Q3

Closes
Mar 4, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3225 91%

Next is Above 3250 at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3225
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3225
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3250
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3250
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3275
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3275
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3300
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3300
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3325
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3325
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3350
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3350
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3375
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3375
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3400
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3400
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3425
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3425
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3450
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3450
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 3475
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3475
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3550
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3550
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3500
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3500
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3525
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3525
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3575
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3575
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3600
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3600
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3225
  • Above 3250
  • Above 3275

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ferrari shipments in Q3". Above 3225 leads at 91%. Next is Above 3250 at 86%. $9K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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